If you’ve been keeping up with real estate news lately, you’ve probably seen headlines claiming that home prices are flat. At first glance, that might sound straightforward — but the reality isn’t quite so simple.

In most areas, prices aren’t flat at all.

While prices have definitely cooled compared to the rapid, unsustainable growth seen between 2020 and 2022, what’s happening now really depends on where you are.

Looking at data from ResiClub and Zillow for the 50 largest metro areas, the real story becomes clear: the market is divided right down the middle. Half of those metros are still seeing prices inch upward, while the other half are seeing slight declines (see graph below).

The key takeaway? “Flat” doesn’t mean prices are steady everywhere. What it really means is that price trends vary dramatically depending on your location.

One of the biggest factors behind this split is inventory. According to the Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) of Harvard University:

“. . . price trends are beginning to diverge in markets across the country. Prices are declining in a growing number of markets where inventories have soared, while they continue to climb in markets where for-sale inventories remain tight.”

When you average those very different conditions together, the national numbers look flat — but that’s not the full story, and it’s not what most local markets are experiencing right now.

Even in areas where prices are dipping, remember this: those are mostly the same markets where prices skyrocketed during the pandemic. Nationally, home prices rose about 50% over the past five years — and even more in some hot markets. So, even with a small correction, most homeowners are still well ahead on equity.

And based on current market fundamentals, experts are not expecting a nationwide price decline moving forward.

What’s happening locally matters — a lot. It affects everything from how fast you need to act to how much leverage you’ll have in negotiations.

• In markets where prices are still rising, waiting could mean paying more later.

• In markets where prices are easing, you may have room to ask for seller concessions like repairs or closing cost assistance.

The takeaway: understanding your local trend gives you the power to make smarter, more strategic decisions.

Local conditions also determine how you should price your home — and what you can realistically expect once it hits the market.

• In areas where prices are still climbing, you may not need to make many compromises.

• But in markets where prices are softening, setting the right price from the start and staying open to negotiation are key to selling successfully.

The most important move for sellers? Partner with a local agent who knows the market inside and out. Homes that are priced correctly from the beginning are the ones that sell.

National averages can be useful for spotting big-picture trends, but they don’t tell you what’s happening in your ZIP code. As Anthony Smith, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, explains:

“While national prices continued to climb, local market conditions have become increasingly fragmented. This regional divide is expected to continue influencing price dynamics and sales activity as the fall season gets underway.”

That’s why having a trusted local real estate professional on your side is so valuable. They can interpret the data specific to your area — whether prices are holding steady, rising, or softening — and help you understand what that means for your next move.

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Bottom Line

Headlines about “flat” home prices might be attention-grabbing, but they don’t paint the full picture.

Real estate is always local — and understanding your market’s reality is what really matters.

🏠 If you want to know what’s happening with home prices right here, right now, let’s connect. I’ll help you get the full story and make the most informed decisions for your next move.