For more than a year, headlines have focused on the possibility of home prices falling or even crashing. But the latest data tells a more nuanced story: price growth may be starting to pick back up. And whether you're buying your next home or thinking about selling, that change could affect your strategy.
Home prices don't move at the same pace everywhere, so national headlines don't always tell you what is happening in your neighborhood. Still, the broader numbers are showing some encouraging signs that the slowdown in price growth may be reaching a turning point.
For the past couple of years, home price growth has been moderating. According to Redfin, growth was around 7% in mid-2024 before gradually cooling. But more recent data suggests the pace of that slowdown may have reached its low point and started to turn upward. A few months of data aren't enough to confirm a lasting trend, but there are other signs pointing in the same direction.
One of those signs is the number of markets where home prices are actually declining. According to data from ResiClub and Zillow, about 36% of the 300 largest housing markets were experiencing falling prices around the middle of last year. Since the beginning of this year, that share has continued to shrink, and now only about 23% of those markets are seeing price declines. At the same time, experts are projecting average national home price growth of around 2.3% this year, which would require prices to pick up somewhat during the second half of 2026.
Even if national home prices are beginning to pick up, that doesn't mean the same thing is happening in every neighborhood. National numbers are averages made up of hundreds of local housing markets, and those markets can behave very differently depending on inventory, employment, affordability, and demand. Some areas are still seeing prices cool, while others are already experiencing stronger appreciation.
Recent data shows that more major metro areas are moving into positive territory. Not long ago, major metros were roughly split between those where prices were rising and those where prices were falling. Now, more than half are seeing prices increase. That shift reinforces an important point: where you live matters more than the national headline. Local markets supported by strong job and income growth, as well as more affordable areas in the Midwest, are among those seeing more noticeable price gains.
If you're buying, the slower price growth we've seen recently has generally worked in your favor. Buyers have had more room to negotiate and more time to plan around their budgets. But if prices are beginning to accelerate in your area, waiting could mean paying more later. That doesn't mean you should rush into a purchase, but it does make understanding your local market especially important.
If you already own a home, you've continued building equity even while price growth moderated. And if appreciation picks up, those gains could accelerate as well. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors, projects that the typical homeowner could gain roughly $16,000 in housing wealth this year. For sellers, that's an encouraging sign, although many markets remain relatively balanced and buyer-friendly. The best strategy depends on what's happening specifically where you live.
Bottom Line
Home price growth slowed significantly, but the latest numbers are showing early signs that it may be picking back up. Whether you're buying or selling, national headlines only tell part of the story.
🏠 Are you wondering what home prices are doing in our local market and what that could mean for your plans? Contact Lake Michigan Realty Management, and let's look at the numbers together so you can make your next move with confidence.
